Way before the first caucus in Iowa, conservative have been concerned that the "Republican establishment" would propel the decidedly un-conservative Mitt Romney to the GOP nomination. The mainstream media has been happy to play along, practically writing the obituary of the tea party movement and discounting conservative contenders. The president's reelection campaign has focused almost exclusively on Mr. Romney as its de facto opponent. And yet somehow, despite all the collective firepower against them, those conservative voters are making their voices heard. They may not achieve an absolute victory for a conservative candidate via the primary process, but they are certainly raising the chances of a brokered convention in August.

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The GOP primary process isn't going according to the usual script. Longtime frontrunner Mitt Romney is stumbling at just the wrong time and no longer looks like the presumptive nominee, Newt Gingrich is surging again but after so many ups and downs, his prospects seem as unstable as his temperament. Ron Paul keeps raising enough money to remain in the race and play a serious spoiler role in state after state. And Rick Santorum, buoyed by the recent news that he actually won in Iowa, has become the anti-Newt in the race to be the anti-Romney. Could these characters and their campaigns be just the opening scenes in what may be a summer blockbuster - a brokered Republican Convention?

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Seeing "no viable path forward," Texas Governor Rick Perry has suspended his presidential campaign. With one less conservative candidate in the mix, the GOP primary battle will probably last beyond Saturday's South Carolina contest and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will not be able to secure the nomination too quickly if at all. That's the good news.

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The most highly anticipated poll of likely Republican Iowa caucus goers is out and the most important number in it is 41. The final Des Moines Register poll before Tuesday's caucuses shows moderate Mitt Romney still unable to break out of the mid-20's after 5 years of campaigning. It also shows libertarian-leaning Ron Paul is at 22% which most believe is the best he'll ever do in any state by far. And the conservative field of Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum are at a combined 45%. Why is it appropriate to combine their level of support instead of simply comparing each of their poll numbers to that of the frontrunners? Because according to the poll, 41% say they could still be persuaded to support another candidate and persuasion is a large part of the Iowa caucuses.

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With just a few days left before the Iowa caucuses, polls show an overwhelming majority of likely voters in the Hawkeye state prefer a conservative candidate over a moderate or a libertarian. That majority just can't seem to agree on which conservative and that leaves the very real possibility that a moderate or libertarian will win.

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