The most highly anticipated poll of likely Republican Iowa caucus goers is out and the most important number in it is 41. The final Des Moines Register poll before Tuesday's caucuses shows moderate Mitt Romney still unable to break out of the mid-20's after 5 years of campaigning. It also shows libertarian-leaning Ron Paul is at 22% which most believe is the best he'll ever do in any state by far. And the conservative field of Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum are at a combined 45%. Why is it appropriate to combine their level of support instead of simply comparing each of their poll numbers to that of the frontrunners? Because according to the poll, 41% say they could still be persuaded to support another candidate and persuasion is a large part of the Iowa caucuses.

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GOP presidential contender Rick Perry is gaining ground in Iowa. A new American Research Group poll shows the Texas governor with 13% support from likely caucus goers. That's up 8 points from the same survey last month while current front runner Newt Gingrich has dropped 5 points (27% to 22%) and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has dropped 3 (20% to 17%). Congressman Ron Paul has gained a point since November (16% then 17% now), but the majority of the Gingrich/Romney losses are definitely Perry gains.

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According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, former businessman and GOP presidential contender Herman Cain's favorability rating among Republicans has dropped by 9 points (from 66% to 57%) over the last week. Favorability is especially important to a candidate like Mr. Cain; a political novice who has never held any political office. With no record of accomplishments in government, his strong suit has been a perceived ability to get things done; to provide steady leadership through tough challenges. But, as this new poll shows, approximately 35 percent of Republicans surveyed believe the recent controversy has damaged that perception.

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According to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, former CEO Herman Cain has the support of 27% of Republican voters and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney gets 23% followed by the rest of the field. But what may be more important than the overall numbers, is the breakdown of the type of voters supporting the top two candidates.

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With just days to go before the special election to replace disgraced Congressman Anthony Weiner in the heavily Democratic ninth congressional district, Republican Bob Turner has surged to a 6 point lead over Democrat David Weprin in the latest independent poll. The new poll conducted by the Siena Research Institute shows retired businessman Turner with a 90-6 percent lead among Republicans and an astounding 65-27 percent lead among Independents. State Assemblyman David Weprin has managed only a 63-32 percent lead among his fellow Democrats.

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