Weekend Debates Not Really About New Hampshire
By Carole on Jan 6, 2012
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Two GOP presidential debates in New Hampshire this weekend will most likely have very little to do with the results of Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. With the latest poll showing former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with a whopping 40% of support in the Granite State, the real show will be how the three remaining conservatives in the race perform.
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Former Senator Rick Santorum should face his biggest debate test so far. His virtual tie for the win in the Iowa Caucuses should earn him the time and attention he's complained about not getting for months so expect him to literally and figuratively be center stage at both Saturday night and Sunday morning's events. Of course that means he'll have to defend his record in the national spotlight for the first time in the campaign.
In the days since his strong showing in Iowa, Mr. Santorum has already stumbled under the increased scrutiny. He tried to defend a controversial comment he made about African Americans by claiming it was "probably a tongue-tied moment as opposed to something that was deliberate" He's also had some trouble defending his current opposition to earmarks in light of his Senate record of supporting and engaging in the practice of adding home-state spending to massive bills. Expect him to get questions on the former from debate moderators and the latter from his more fiscally conservative opponents.
One of those opponents, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, will most likely spend the majority of his time attacking Governor Romney. In a strong shift from his positive-only campaign pledge, Mr. Gingrich has decided to fight negative with negative; already going after Mr. Romney's less than conservative record, his economic plan (calling it timid) and his ability to defeat President Barack Obama (saying "Obama is going to laugh at him.")
Expect more of the same in the upcoming debates from the undisputed champion of debating. While Mr. Gingrich may not be able to improve his own chances in New Hampshire and beyond, he's the most likely adversary to do serious damage to Governor Romney's status as the inevitable nominee.
And then there's Texas Governor Rick Perry. After a fifth place finish in Iowa and a brief break to reassess his campaign, he is in both the worst and best position among the three conservatives still standing. Behind both Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich in virtually every poll and well known for his early debate blunders, Governor Perry should be in "nothing to lose" mode this weekend. That can free him of any ill-advised political caution and unleash the real Rick Perry many conservatives have been waiting for.
With his last best chance to rebound in South Carolina's January 21 primary, Governor Perry can use this weekend's debates as a launching pad for his comeback or they could bring about the beginning of his final reassessment.
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