Could 2012 Be A Three Or Even Four Way Contest?
By Carole on Oct 5, 2011
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With recent polls showing President Barack Obama's approval rating continuing to plummet and the vast majority of Republicans still undecided about the current GOP field of contenders, could next year's presidential campaign turn into a three- or even four-way race? While many liberals have become increasingly frustrated with Mr. Obama's string of broken promises, many conservatives are worried that the GOP will settle for someone too moderate leaving room on both ends of the ideological spectrum for another candidate (or two). There's also the possibility that a seemingly apolitical contender could be the choice of many voters who have all but given up on the current system.
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In the case of a candidate who could out-liberal President Obama or out-conservative the GOP nominee, the idea of more and possibly better choices than just one Democrat and one Republican might seem like a good idea. But as we saw in 1992 with Ross Perot (and to a lesser extent in 2000 with Ralph Nader), third party candidates that are decidedly closer in political philosophy to one side than the other can become nothing more than spoilers. They simply siphon votes away from the Democrat or the Republican and hand a victory to the candidate that neither the party establishment nor the upstart's supporters wanted.
In this election cycle, the possibility that former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin could be one of those ideological candidates has gotten some attention. While according to a recent poll, two-thirds of Republicans do not want Mrs. Palin to seek their party's nomination, she enjoys strong support from many in the Tea Party movement which could propel a serious third party run.
On the other side of the spectrum, Consumer Advocate Ralph Nader is once again attempting to influence national politics by trying to recruit a slate of liberals to challenge President Obama in the Democratic primaries. Mr. Nader and some of his far-left allies (including academic Cornel West, writer Gore Vidal, actor Peter Coyote and singer Michelle Shocked) have sent a letter to over 150 potential sympathizers accusing the president of turning his back on his liberal base and its progressive agenda. When the primary challenge fails, as it most certainly will, it's not difficult to imagine Mr. Nader mounting a third party campaign for one of his recruits as he did for himself in 2000, 2004 and 2008 and there's more than likely some Hollywood support for such a bid.
Of course these ideological candidates could have a different effect than those in the past. They could put the establishment candidates in a more favorable, non-extremist light with the all-important independent voters. Or they could ride the current wave of dissatisfaction with the status quo all the way to the White House. But the more likely scenario with regard to a third legitimate choice in November is that a seemingly apolitical candidate could portray him or herself as the ultimate outsider who could unite left, right and middle into a coalition of problem solvers instead of partisans.
To such a candidate, deadlines to participate in party primaries mean nothing and there is no concern over whether or not they can put together a ground team in Iowa and New Hampshire in time. They would not have to participate in intra-party debates nor fight for endorsements from party big-wigs. But they would need to raise huge amounts of cash without the benefit of a party machine or traditional party donors. That limits the type of person who could effectively mount such a campaign to very, very wealthy individuals who already have some degree of national name recognition.
Is there so much dissatisfaction with the GOP establishment and so much disapproval of the Democratic incumbent that such a 'celebrity candidate' could become the next American president? Or will a 'protest candidate' from the far left or far right play the role of spoiler and help determine the winner in 2012? Most likely there will just be another contest between one Democrat and one Republican but at this point, anything is possible.
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