In order to take control of the US Senate this November, Republicans need a net gain of 10 seats. Some of those contests promise to be nail biters, others will be long shots and at least one looks like a gimme. According to a new poll, US Representative John Boozman (R-Arkansas) has a 25 point lead over incumbent Senator Blanch Lincoln (D-Arkansas).

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The poll of likely Arkansas voters found that 57% would vote for Mr. Boozman compared to 32% who would choose Ms. Lincoln if the election were held today. Five percent prefer other candidates and 6% remain undecided. (source)

Senator Lincoln helped shape the financial reform bill recently passed by the Senate and hoped that effort would help her in the polls (and help some voters forget hers was the 60th and deciding vote for President Obama's hugely unpopular health care overhaul bill). But as this new poll suggests, the people of Arkansas agreed with her opponent on financial reform.

Mr. Boozman, who voted against the bill in the House, said recently that it creates a permanent bailout system. "Putting the taxpayers permanently on the hook for Wall Street's misdeeds is certainly not holding lenders accountable for risky schemes. This only makes it more, not less, likely that bailouts occur in the future," he said. (source)

Representative Boozman also agrees with the majority of Arkansas voters (and the majority of Americans) on other key issues:

• On Senator Lincoln's claim that providing unemployment assistance is an effective way of stimulating the economy he said, "The problem is, we have to pay for these things. When the (stimulus) money runs out, the job runs out."
  
  
• On reductions in service due to Obamacare's lower payments to doctors and increased number of people relying on the government for health care, "Something's got to give and that's the quality of care," Mr. Boozman said.
  
  
• On illegal immigration, Mr. Boozman said he wants the US to secure its borders, hold employers accountable for hiring foreign workers and make English the nation's official language. (source)

Senator Lincoln would continue supporting the Obama agenda while, according to a recent Gallup poll, Arkansas voters give the president one of the lowest approval ratings (40%) of any state. (source)

So while anything can happen in politics and no November victory is guaranteed, it's looking like Representative Boozman would have to be caught on camera drowning a hundred puppies just for the thrill of it to lose this particular election. And there's virtually nothing Senator Lincoln can do to outrun her record enough to win it.