With the holidays officially behind us, the 2010 mid-term election season is officially open for business. Everyone who thinks Senator Byron Dorgan (D-North Dakota) is a lock to win re-election in November, take one step forward. Not so fast! In the first political bombshell of the new year, the junior senator from the Peace Garden State has stunned the beltway and his own party by announcing he will not seek re-election in the fall.

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"Although I still have a passion for public service and enjoy my work in the Senate, I have other interests and I have other things I would like to pursue outside of public life," Senator Dorgan, 67, said in a statement late Tuesday afternoon. (source)

While I don't doubt that there are other things in life Mr. Dorgan wishes to pursue, I also believe his slim to no chance of winning the next election played a large part in his decision not to seek another term. According to a recent poll of likely voters in North Dakota, Senator Dorgan's likely challenger, Republican Governor John Hoeven is ahead by 22 points (58% to 36%) with just six percent undecided. (source)

Democrats are already scrambling for a replacement candidate but whoever they choose will have an uphill battle on their hands. According to that same poll, Governor Hoeven carries the male vote by nearly two-to-one and wins female voters by 15 points. Independent voters prefer Hoeven by a 63% to 28% margin.

In response to Senator Dorgan's announcement, Brian Walsh of the National Republican Senatorial Committee issued a statement which read in part, “This development is indicative of the difficult environment and slumping approval ratings that Democrats face as a result of their out of control tax-and-spend agenda in Washington, and we fully intend to capitalize on this opportunity by continuing to recruit strong candidates who can win these seats in November.”

That would make this a happy new year, indeed!