There has been plenty of talk about next week's gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia; how victory by either or both of the Republican candidates would be a rejection of the Obama administration and its policies. But there's also a special election in New York Congressional District 23 being held on Tuesday that may send that same message even if the Democrat wins.

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A little history on District 23: Located in the northern part of New York State, the district is considered conservative having been in Republican hands continuously since just after the Civil. War. The latest of these Republicans, John McHugh, represented the area in Congress since 1992 and was the ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee. In June of this year, Representative McHugh was lured from his seat by President Obama with the offer to become Secretary of the Army. (The true spirit of bipartisanship or an attempt to influence the political makeup of District 23? You make the call.) With Representative McHugh's resignation on September 21 to take the new post, a special election was scheduled for November 3 to determine who will succeed him.

According to state law, the candidate for each party in the special election is chosen by the party chairmen in the counties within the district. This system led to a rather liberal GOP candidate, Assemblywoman Dierdre Scozzafava, and that choice opened the door for the more conservative Doug Hoffman to enter the race under the Conservative Party banner. Obviously this situation could lead to a split Republican vote and a victory for the third candidate - Democrat Bill Owens.

If Mr. Owens does win, expect a lot of crowing by the Democratic Party as they claim it as a victory for the Obama administration. But the real story will be the combined number of votes for Ms. Scozzafava and Mr. Hoffman - that's what the Democrats will be up against in the 2010 election where the candidates are chosen by the people in a traditional primary.

Of course it's possible that Ms. Scozzafava or Mr. Hoffman could actually win next week. One recent poll shows Conservative Hoffman at 34%, Democrat Owens at 29% and Republican Scozzafava at 14% with 23% still undecided. (source) What a message to Washington that would be.