Forget his Olympic-sized defeat, the next measure of President Obama's shrinking influence will be taken in one month in New Jersey. The gubernatorial race between incumbent Jon Corzine and former US attorney Chris Christie is in the home stretch and Mr. Christie, the Republican, leads in all polls as he has for months. What does this have to do with the White House? The Obama administration is at least as involved in trying to get Governor Corzine re-elected as it is in trying to get New York Governor David Paterson to step aside.

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Every Corzine TV ad is being screened by the president's team. Corzine aides are giving daily briefings to the White House. Mr. Obama's pollsters have taken over for Mr. Corzine's polling team, and White House operatives are on the ground for everything from internal strategy sessions to obscure pep rallies with Latino supporters. (source)

Why is Team Obama so invested in this state-wide race? Because if the very very blue state of New Jersey suddenly elects a Republican governor, it will most likely be seen as a rejection of the Obama administration, its policies and even the president himself. But Governor Corzine is a very tough sell in a state suffering more than most in the current economic climate. A former co-chairman of Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs, Corzine is seen as the personification of the greed and shady dealings that caused the recent Wall Street meltdowns. And, although he wasn't directly involved, a huge corruption and international money-laundering scandal in the state happened on his watch.

By comparison Mr. Christie's reputation as a corruption fighting prosecutor seems to be just what the people of New Jersey are looking for. His television ads focus on positive change in the state while Mr. Corzine's are filled with negative attacks on minor issues like Christie's driving record and his weight (he is a very large man).

So keep your eye on New Jersey for the next four weeks to find out if Team Obama can con their way to another victory. The smart money says the people of New Jersey won't fall for the same scam twice.