He was up 11% in the polls just two months ago but now Senator Arlen Specter (D-Pennsylvania) is trailing Republican Pat Toomey 48-36%. Senator Specter is still fighting off a Democratic challenger for his party's nomination in the 2010 election but even if he lost that, Mr. Toomey is way ahead of that other Democratic nominee (Congressman Joe Sestak) 43-35% according to the same poll. (source)

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There are several reasons that can explain this drop in this all-important swing state:

Senator Specter angered many of his supporters in April by switching party affiliations. Conventional wisdom says he made that switch because the polls showed him trailing Mr. Toomey in a Republican primary fight by over 20 points. (source)

Senator Specter has been a prime target of the recent town hall meeting protests over health care reform. He's been seen on television news and You Tube as a target of constituents' anger and frustration (source) and has only turned the heat up by sticking to his new party's talking points instead of providing real answers to valid questions.

Even before his party switch, Senator Specter angered many in his state by being one of only three Senate Republicans to vote in favor of President Obama's economic stimulus plan; the passage of which more and more Pennsylvanians are regretting as the weeks and months go by.

In short, count Pennsylvania as another state that has hope there will be change in 2010.